Sorry for the lack of updates, my baby boy decided to come 3 weeks early, guess he wanted to see the Superbowl.
We are playing very well right now. It is interesting to note that we are not playing traditional Woj basketball. The defense, while tough, is not as intense, it is hard man defense but we are not smothering the perimeter the same way that was leading to back cuts and ball screens. We are also a lot looser and have not rebounded as well but certainly it has been good enough. Hopefully Woj has realized that no matter what you do on defense, rebounding, etc. that in order to win, you MUST outscore your oppposition.
The person that has been helped the most by this is Ray Reese. IMHO he is playing better than anyone on the team when you factor in defense. Hurtt has really blossomed as well and if he can improve on defense and finishing on the offensive end, he can be a real player.
We have won 5 in a row but now have 2 tough road games. Memphis is playing great, that is going to be tough and even though UCF has flat out stunk it up the last 2 games, that wont be easy either. Houston at home is the only other chance for a slip up.
It is fun to talk about being on the NCAA bubble but right now, we are not close. Remember that SMS was left out with an RPI in the low 30s a couple times and I believe the MVC was a top 6 conference as well. If we were to win out I think our RPI would be in the low 40s which would get us on the board at least. People like to point to the Tulane and Ohio games as ones that may keep us out but in fact, there are two WINS that are going to keep us out. UNCC and Loyola are a combined 2-44. If we dont play those games at all we are probably 20 spots higher in the RPI. It is a crap shoot but you just CANNOT schedule these really really terrible teams when your conference is just average. Those are THE two worst teams in the entire nation.
Here's to hoping we win the next 2 so we can all start the RPI watch again. It is fun to even be thinking about it, even as a longshot.
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Congrats on the new little Hurricane
ReplyDeleteIt's probably killing Woj about the rebounding numbers lately, but having Justin on the court whether he is scoring or not makes us a more athletic and faster team and that's been a huge difference. We needed some speed badly.
ReplyDeleteRay is getting comfortable and Sam has found his niche as being a 7 to 15 minute guy not worrying about fouling rather than starting and getting yelled at.
Call me crazy, but I expect to put up a major fight at Memphis.
And congrats again on the new baby.
canester
Interesting that your take is that we've gotten away from 'Woj ball' and that's why we've been more successful. I think we've gotten away from what many fans perceived as Woj ball, but how else do you interpret UTEP starting 3/21 as less intense defense? I think we're playing better because the offense has actually become efficient now that we're successfully posting up Jordan and have a guy like Hurtt hitting from outside. Regardless of the style, I'm just glad to see them winning.
ReplyDeleteI'd personally be more upset about the NCCU and LMU games if there weren't circumstances explaining those games. NCCU was a part of the South Padre tournament, so while I wish we could have avoided them and played NC-Wilmington I'm pretty sure it's the draw that we were given. In the end, I'd rather play NCCU each year if it guarantees a game against Texas A&M and Illinois.
LMU was obviously a road trip for Ray Reese. I'm not ecstatic about playing them, but I think you overstate their effect on our RPI because we get 1.4 win for playing that game. I'd have to crunch the numbers, but I'd guess that game cost us fewer than 5 spots in the RPI.
The game that I'm most upset we agreed to and I think it was a bad decision all around is the Ohio game. Crammed between the finals of the SPI tourney and the game against OU, we play 1000 miles away against a MAC team? Ohio is always a decent team, but their home court is one of the best in the nation. If you take a look at teamrankings.com, they rate Ohio's homecourt advantage statistically as the 11th best in the country this year. That was a no-win game and a poor scheduling job.
Congrats on your new baby boy.
NCCU was part of the tourny? Weird, we played them at home, I guess I forgot about that set up. Those 2 teams are adding 42 losses and 2 wins to our opp record which is 50% of RPI. That is a lot more than 5 spots, maybe not 20.
ReplyDeleteI think we are still playing Woj ball, just a lot looser. Same as the end of last year, guys start trying to make plays and stop trying to not screw up. The defense is very good, just not as in your face or smothering.
I wish we could play well in the first third of the season under Woj but it is more fun to be hot at the end of the year. We'll see what happens. I think we may push Memphis but no zone = no win.